Global Climate Change

GEOS 3410

Graham H. Edwards

Draw a number, return the number, and sit in the corresponding area.


Disclaimer

Class sessions are recorded and available on Canvas to support your learning.


Week 1 Schedule

Tuesday

  1. Welcome/introduction
  2. IPCC reading, discussion
  3. Course overview
  4. Climate intro

Thursday

  1. Syllabus overview
  2. Climate, cont...

Outside of class

  • Complete (29 Aug): Onboarding survey on Canvas
  • Complete (12 Sept): Quantitative skills practice set

This week's business

Syllabus

Please read the syllabus. If not for your own success in this course, then for Syllabus Trivia on Thursday.

If you never read the syllabus... (but please do!)

  1. Attend class (unless you should not or cannot)
  2. Drop-in hours – see me before you need me!
  3. Course schedule: 3 assessments, labs
  4. Please reach out if you are struggling.

Quantitative skills

  1. Complete practice packet
  2. Self-grade
  3. Meet with me (asar)

Skills packet

Laboratory 1: Climate science & data science

MMS 273 — Thursday 12:45–3:25 pm

  • Bring a computer to lab (tablet unideal but ok)
  • Complete pre-laboratory assignment before lab meeting

A little about me...

  • Please call me "Graham"
  • My pronouns are he/him
  • I am a geochemist and cosmochemist
  • I use analytical chemistry and numerical models to study…
    • the histories of lakes and extinct ice sheets
    • interaction between sediment/soil and water over long timescales
    • the early evolution of the solar system
  • I do not like driving
  • I do like baking bread, biking, and long train rides

⚗️ Guiding framework ⚗️

Diving right in...

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Step 1: Collaborators

Your clustermates are your collaborators.
Introduce yourself and share these 4 pieces of information:

  1. Name, pronouns
  2. Year or major or both.
  3. Hometown (however you define it)
  4. Bird or frog?

Report back
🐸 & 🐦

Step 2: Reading Assessment Report 6 (AR6)

Synthesis Report: Summary for Policymakers

    Read through the excerpt on your table and discuss the following questions with your collaborators:

  1. What did you read that was familiar?
  2. What did you read that was unfamiliar?
  3. What new question(s) do you have after this reading?
  4. How did reading this make you feel?

  5. Be prepared to share your reflections

Report back

Course Overview

Two broad themes

  1. The Earth (climate) system:
    physics & foundations

  2. Earth's climate through time:
    past → present → future


Theme 1

The Earth (climate) system: physics & foundations

Week 1

Climate (science) & why we care

Week 2

The Earth (climate) system

Week 3

(Astro)Physics of climate

Week 4

Energy budget & radiative forcing

NASA

Week 5

General (ocean and atmosphere) circulation

Week 6

Weather & teleconnections

Week 7

Midterm assessment on theme 1

Theme 2

Earth's climate through time

Data: Lisiecki+Raymo 2004, Fig design: ghe

Week 7/8

The cryosphere

Image credit: ghe

Week 8/9

Paleoclimatology – tools & techniques

Week 10

Climate history I: Deep Time

Week 11

Climate history II: The Quaternary (2.58 Ma → now)

Week 12

Climate history III: Deglaciation & the Holocene

Week 13

Environmental responses to climate


Midterm assessment on theme 2

Break

No Class

Week 14

Modern climate change in context

Image: NOAA

Application & evaluation

Practice & participation

Graded on completion
  • Problem/practice sets
  • In-class activities
  • Comprehension checks
etc…

Laboratories

Complete assignments/write-ups due the following Friday, 8 days later.
(unless otherwise specified)

Assessments

Midterm I: in-class written exam (1 pg notes)
Midterm II: in-class written essay (open notes)
Final: oral exam

Grading breakdown

Total 100%
Practice & participation 30%
Laboratories 40%
Assessments (10% each) 30%

What is climate (science)?
Why do we care?

Climate & Weather

Let's establish some working definitions

Climate & Weather

Weather

The state of the atmosphere, mainly with respect to its effects upon life and human activities.

American Meteorological Society

Climate & Weather

Climate

Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period for averaging these variables is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The relevant quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind.

IPCC AR6, Annex VII: Glossary

Climate and weather processes exist along a continuum.

Scales of climate

  1. Geographic (space)
  2. Temporal (time)

Geographic scales of climate

Geographic zones

Roughly correlate with mean annual temperature

Regional climate zones

Köppen-Geiger climate classification system

A Tropical
B Dry
C Moist Subtropical Mid-Latitude
D Moist Continental Mid-Latitude
E Polar
H Highland

Global distribution of Köppen zones

Temporal scales of climate

Annual mean temperature

Decadal (10 yr) scale

Centennial (100 yr) scale

Millenial (1000 yr) scale

104 yr scale

105 – 106 yr scale

Data: Lisiecki+Raymo 2004, Fig design: ghe

107 yr scale

108 yr scale

109 yr scale

Climate across time and space

Measuring Climate Change

Spatial variability

Temporal variablity

Temporal Variability

Spatial & temporal variability

Evidence for modern climate warming

Context within Pleistocene

2580 ka to 11.7 ka, The "Ice Age"(s)
Number of times a region was covered by an ice sheet during Pleistocene

Batchelor+ 2021

Context within Pleistocene

2580 ka to 11.7 ka, The "Ice Age"(s)
Data: Lisiecki+Raymo 2004, Fig design: ghe

Context within the Holocene

(11.7 ka to now)

Context within the last millenium

(MWP/LIA — mostly regional signal in the North Atlantic)

Mean global temperatures

What is our baseline (y=0)?

Distribution of Heating

Flow of oceans and amtosphere (re)distributes heat

Climate change is heterogenous but consistent and requires anthropogenic forcing

Greenhouses, effects, and gases

Greenhouses, effects, and gases

Greenhouse Gases

Trace gases in atmosphere (dry atmosphere, [H2O] ≤ 4%)
Transparent to visible light (sunlight)
Opaque to infrared light (heat)
Images: Wikimedia, NASA

Annual atmospheric CO2

🌲

"The Keeling curve" (instrumental)

Reconstruction of last 300 years

The role of greenhouse gases in Earth's energy budget

The Holocene

Simulating the climate system

Climate model fundamentals

Results from Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Turning the knobs on forcings allow us to reconstruct (hindcast) climate of the past and predict (forecast) climate of the future

The hardest process to predict is human behavior

Lab this afternoon (MMS 273)

Bring a computer!

Next Week ()

  • Readings: Bender (2011) ch. 1 , Atmos. Proc. & Phen. ch. 1
  • Please complete onboarding survey (Aug 29)
  • Complete/self-grade quantitative skills packet & meet with me, by Sept 12